With climate models pointing towards a possible “Super” El Niño from summer 2026, Sara Simmons, Head of Home and Pet Underwriting at Covéa Insurance, shares what brokers need to know.

“El Niño is a natural climate pattern that begins in the tropical Pacific when the surface sea temperatures become warmer which then disrupts the global weather patterns,” says Sara. “Whilst it directly affects those countries around the Pacific, the UK and Europe are indirectly affected and it can increase the likelihood of more extreme conditions, particularly colder winters.”

So what could that look like here?

• Wetter, milder conditions in late 2026 – increasing flood and storm risk

• Colder, more prolonged spells across the winter and into early 2027

• Hotter, drier conditions later in 2027 – bringing subsidence back into focus

“This is a chance to get ahead of the conversation and be proactive – being ready to help customers understand the risks and take appropriate action.”

Act now

As weather patterns become less predictable, early engagement is key.

Be ready to speak to your customers about their exposure to flood, storm, freeze and subsidence risk.  Provide guidance and advice about what to do should a weather event be forecast.  Risk mitigation can really help – whether it’s leaving the heating on when away in the winter or ensuring garden furniture and outdoor items are safely secured or stored.  Risk advice can be found by visiting Guides | Covéa Insurance

When severe weather is on the way, being prepared makes all the difference. By signing up to our flood and storm alerts, you’ll get proactive updates and guidance to help you support your clients from the very first warning through to recovery. It's’s all part of how we work in partnership with you when it matters most. Find out more at Prevention Resources | Covéa Insurance

An indirect consequence of a severe El Nino pattern is the potential impact on global food supplies due to flooding, drought and wildfires.  This year any shortage may in turn be exacerbated by the Middle East conflict and the issue with the supply of fertiliser.

At Covea, we have an ongoing focus on emerging risk trends and helping you support your customers through increasingly unpredictable weather conditions.